☿Futarchy Proposal Simulator

TWAP-resolved conditional markets with point-of-no-return envelope and team-sponsor handicap modeling

Solomonic · Terminal Edition

The Messenger Moves

I · Proposal Configuration⚖

Duration (hours)

TWAP Starts After (hours)

Spot Price at Launch

Price Floor

Price Ceiling

Chart View Min

Chart View Max

Font Scale (%)

Team-sponsored proposal (biases toward PASS)

Team buffer (%) — FAIL must exceed PASS by this margin to defeat a team proposal

Dataset JSON Loader

Proposal Launch Time (UTC ISO, optional)

If provided, the proposal countdown starts here instead of at the first observed trade.

Dataset URL (HTTP/S JSON endpoint)

Fetches JSON via fetch. The remote endpoint must allow browser access (CORS).

Paste dataset JSON

Load dataset file

Loads per-address positions from the JSON payload and assigns deterministic monikers.

UI State Save / Load

Scenario state JSON

Load state file

Local save uses browser storage. State JSON can be pasted, imported, or downloaded.

Example data ready · local storage enabled

II · Price Keyframes✦

#	Time (h)	PASS Price	FAIL Price

Drag points on the chart to reshape the price path

III · Price Path & TWAP Envelope∫

PASS price FAIL price PASS TWAP FAIL TWAP PASS final-TWAP envelope FAIL final-TWAP envelope current TWAP level guides

24.0h / 48h

Y Zoom

100%

X Zoom

100%

X Pan

0.0h → 48.0h

V · Outcome Projection⚶

TWAP · PASS to t

—

envelope · final range

TWAP · FAIL to t

—

envelope · final range

Spread (PASS − FAIL)

—

team buffer applied to PASS side

Lock status

—

path-independent resolution certainty

☉

PASS — projected at current trajectory

outcome remains path-dependent

VI · TWAP Battle Estimator

Flat-hold attack model from now to expiry. Core quantity is TWAP area; notional uses recent empirical repricing from loaded trades when available.

Needs recent trade samples to convert price move into rough notional.

IV · Participants, Positions & Whale Hunting☉